Fund Manager Summary on Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI)
Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI) has recently displayed mixed performance as it transitions from a period of heavy capital investment towards achieving sustainable free cash flow. While fund managers like Milford Asset Management highlight the company's improved productivity and attractive base metal exposure, concerns about higher near-term costs and a disappointing three-year outlook have emerged, as noted by Firetrail Investments and Tyndall Asset Management. The Federation mine is expected to ramp up production but may face operational challenges, contributing to a projected shortfall of approximately A$160 million in free cash flow over two financial years. Nonetheless, the longer-term valuation remains promising, with Cadence Capital projecting a strong FY26e FCF yield. Investors should weigh these dynamics carefully, as the company navigates both growth opportunities and inherent market volatility.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 7 insights from 5 fund managers regarding their investment in Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Firetrail Investments
30 June 2025
$0.19
Summary
- Firetrail Investments notes a significant decline in Aurelia Metals Ltd's share price following an investor day.
- The company provided a disappointing 3-year outlook, indicating a shortfall of approximately A$160m in free cash flow over the next two financial years.
- Despite the negative update, FY28 forecasts are reported to be broadly in line with market expectations.
- This situation highlights the volatility of metal grades within poly-metallic base metal assets.
- Firetrail Investments continues to hold its position in Aurelia, recognizing the inherent risks and opportunities in the sector.
Tyndall Asset Management
30 June 2025
$0.19
Summary
- Aurelia Metals underperformed for the month following an investor day.
- Mixed 3-year guidance was provided, causing market concerns.
- Longer-term production guidance is ahead of expectations.
- Short-term cost warnings were issued as the Federation mine ramps up.
- The market reaction focused on near-term costs, leading to a negative share price response.
- Tyndall Asset Management believes the negative share price reaction was excessive.
- The longer-term value of the mine has not materially changed.
Cadence Capital
31 Mar 2025
$0.26
Summary
- Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) is a polymetallic producer focusing on gold, copper, and zinc.
- AMI is transitioning out of a long period of capital investment into sustainable positive free cash flow.
- The company maintains a net cash position.
- At current spot prices, AMI has a PEG ratio of 0.1x.
- Expected FY26e FCF yield is over 30%.
- Cadence Capital looks forward to AMI's Investor Day in June for guidance on increased production and lower costs.
Milford Asset Management
31 Mar 2025
$0.26
Summary
- Aurelia Metals has shown improved productivity over the past 18 months, leading to positive market recognition.
- The operation is self-funding, with the Federation mine coming online on time and within budget.
- Aurelia is performing better in processing metals, which enhances its operational success.
- Milford Asset Management believes Aurelia is well placed to continue execution of its operational strategy.
- The company offers one of the more attractive base metal exposures in the market.
- Despite a recent share price rally, valuation metrics remain attractive.
Tyndall Asset Management
31 Mar 2025
$0.26
Summary
- Aurelia Metals has shown strong performance following a positive 2Q25 update.
- Production volumes at the Peak mine exceeded expectations.
- Higher grades and recoveries contributed to lower costs.
- This led to a robust free cash flow performance.
- The market is confident in Aurelia Metals' ability to self-fund the ramp-up of the Federation Mine.
Ryder Capital
31 Mar 2024
$0.16
Summary
- Ryder Capital's position in Aurelia Metals is yielding significant returns.
- Positive operational progress and rising prices for gold and base metals, particularly copper, are key factors.
- Aurelia Metals reported a 41% increase over the quarter.
- 1H24 results show earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet exceeding expectations.
- New CEO Bryan Quinn is driving a turnaround for the company.
- The Federation mine development is on schedule and budget with first ore expected in September.
- Production ramp-up is anticipated by late FY25.
- Commodities prices and operational optimizations position Aurelia for further growth.
Ryder Capital
30 June 2023
$0.09
Summary
- Ryder Capital added to Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) following a significant drop in value.
- Ryder Capital participated in AMI's successful recapitalisation.
- The Portfolio exposure to AMI has increased to approximately 4.9% at year end.
- Ryder Capital continues to hold its position in AMI due to the potential for recovery and growth.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI)?
Fund managers including Milford Asset Management, Ryder Capital, Firetrail Investments, Cadence Capital and Tyndall Asset Management have invested in Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI).
Why do fund managers invest in Aurelia Metals Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Aurelia Metals Ltd due to its solid assets in the base metals sector, particularly in gold, copper, and zinc. The company's recent operational improvements and self-funding capabilities enhance its growth prospects. Despite fluctuations in share price, valuation metrics remain attractive, with forecasts indicating a transition to positive free cash flow. However, the investment comes with risks related to market volatility and cost fluctuations associated with mining operations.
What happened to Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI)?
There have been no recent updates from fund managers regarding Aurelia Metals Ltd although fund managers including Milford Asset Management, Ryder Capital, Firetrail Investments, Cadence Capital and Tyndall Asset Management have previously commented.
What is the short interest in Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI)?
The short interest in Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI) is 0.05% which makes it the 452nd most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 1.7B shares that Aurelia Metals Ltd has on issue, 774.1K have been sold short.
What does Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX:AMI) do?
Aurelia Metals Ltd. engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties. It focuses on the production of gold, copper, silver, lead, and zinc. It operates through the following segments: Peak Mine, Hera Mine, Dargues Mine, and Corporate. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.