Fund Manager Summary on BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI)
BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI) is progressing steadily with its Mardie Salt Project, currently over 69% complete and remaining within budget. Recent commentary emphasizes that full-scale operations have commenced following key governmental approvals, significantly de-risking the project and positioning it for a potential share price material rerating ahead of first salt production anticipated in late CY2026. However, while the project is fully funded and strategic off-take agreements are in place, critical components such as the completion of the salt crystallizer trains and approval for jetty dredging are still pending, representing operational risks. The project's potential to generate significant free cash flow, bolstered by a strengthening salt market driven by supply deficits in Asia, presents considerable growth opportunities for investors. The company’s focus on producing SOP as Australia’s first domestic supplier adds to its long-term attractiveness, but careful monitoring of construction progress and market conditions is advised.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 13 insights from 2 fund managers regarding their investment in BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Sandon Capital
31 Dec 2025
$0.39
Summary
- Sandon Capital updates its investment thesis on BCI Minerals Ltd (BCI): summarising recent project, financing and operational developments.
- Regulatory de‑risking: BCI has secured all primary Federal and WA State approvals for its optimised dredging method at Cape Preston West Port, reducing key permitting and execution uncertainty.
- Dredging schedule: Dredging is expected to commence in April 2026, providing a clearer timeline for port works and downstream shipping schedules.
- Convertible note conversion: Australian Super converted its Series 1 Convertible Notes into ~50 million shares at a conversion price of $0.5811 per share, crystallising dilution at a known price and simplifying the capital structure.
- Production milestone on track: BCI remains on target for first salt on ship before the end of 2026, which would materially de‑risk the commercial ramp‑up if achieved.
- Investment rationale — why Sandon Capital continues to hold: approvals, a defined dredging start date, and the conversion event together reduce execution and financing overhangs while preserving upside from early production and project delivery.
- Key risks Sandon Capital is monitoring: execution risk (dredging/port works), schedule slippage, construction and operating cost inflation, commodity price and sales contracts, and any further capital or permitting needs.
- Positioning and next catalysts: near‑term catalysts include dredging commencement (April 2026), port works progress updates, and confirmation of first salt shipment timing toward end‑2026.
- Not financial advice: This summary describes Sandon Capital's updated investment thesis and is not financial advice.
Ryder Capital
15 Oct 2025
$0.41
Summary
- BCI Minerals Limited (BCI) is the 100% owner of the Mardie project, a significant Tier 1 solar evaporation salt and sulphate of potash (SOP) project in the Pilbara region of WA.
- Once complete, Mardie will be Australia’s largest solar salt project and the third largest globally.
- First salt production is on track for CY2026, with projected outputs of 5.35Mtpa salt and 140ktpa of SOP fertiliser, generating steady-state annual EBITDA of approximately A$392m over a minimum 60-year project life.
- Minimal sustaining capex is required, with a high EBITDA cash conversion of around 95% pre-tax steady state, creating a long-term fully franked income stream for investors.
- Salt is widely used, with over 10,000 direct and indirect uses, and an emerging supply deficit in Asia supports a stronger price environment.
- SOP is a high-value fertiliser classified as a critical mineral, and BCI will be the first domestic producer of SOP in Australia.
- Construction is progressing well, with the salt component of the project at 69% completion as of June.
- The project is fully funded, with all approvals and offtakes in place with tier 1 counterparties.
- Full-scale operations have commenced following government approval in April, with ponds 1-9 over 90% inundation.
- BCI remains on track to deliver the first salt on ship in late CY2026, supplying high-quality industrial salt to Asia.
- Customer feedback indicates strengthening salt market dynamics, with potential customers in India, Indonesia, and China requiring sizable amounts of salt.
- At full ramp-up, the Mardie project is expected to generate $300m+ of free cash flow, which will be paid to shareholders as fully-franked dividends.
- There is substantial inherent value in the infrastructure built, particularly the Cape Preston Port West, where BCI has invested $350m, providing a multi-user port with 14.5Mt surplus capacity for additional high-margin earnings.
Ryder Capital
30 Sept 2025
$0.42
Summary
- BCI Minerals constitutes a 15.1% portfolio weight for Ryder Capital.
- BCI has demonstrated a strong quarter with significant progress on the Mardie Salt Project.
- Construction completion is now over 69%, up from 61% in the prior quarter as of 30 June.
- The project remains within budget, with first salt shipment expected in late calendar year 2026.
- All 9 ponds have been filled, nearing completion.
- Critical elements pending include the completion of the salt crystallizer trains, the salt wash plant, and approval for jetty dredging activities.
- Validation work on Mardie product for SOP continues, with optimism about converting the salt brine waste stream into a valuable mineral.
- BCI's market capitalization is approaching $1.2 billion, attracting broader market attention.
- Potential for index inclusion is anticipated in 2026.
Ryder Capital
30 Apr 2025
$0.28
Summary
- Ryder Capital highlights the strong performance of BCI Minerals, its single largest holding.
- The performance was driven by the receipt of Commonwealth Government approval for full-scale operations at the Mardie Salt Project.
- This approval is considered a significant de-risking event for BCI.
- Ryder Capital anticipates a material rerating in the BCI share price over the next twelve months.
- Expectations are set for first salt on ship and operational revenues to commence in late CY2026.
Sandon Capital
30 Apr 2025
$0.28
Summary
- Sandon Capital acknowledges BCI Minerals Ltd's recent approval from the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) for its Groundwater Monitoring and Management Plan.
- This approval allows BCI to commence filling the remaining operational ponds (Ponds 4 through 9) and begin commissioning the crystallisers at the Mardie Project.
- In its quarterly update, BCI reported that the construction of the salt first phase of the Mardie Project is 61% complete.
- The total construction expenditure is projected to reach $824 million by 31 March 2025.
Ryder Capital
31 Mar 2025
$0.25
Summary
- BCI declined 5.8% over the quarter despite positive developments in its projects.
- Mardie Salt Project construction is over 56% complete and remains within budget.
- First salt shipment is anticipated in 2H CY26, reaffirming project timelines.
- BCI received its first debt drawdown payment after fulfilling all lenders’ conditions, marking a significant milestone.
- Binding offtake agreements have been secured, confirming full funding for the project.
- State approval granted for the second phase of the Groundwater Monitoring and Management Plan during the quarter.
- Commonwealth Government approval received to continue operations, with all necessary environmental approvals in place.
- The market now has clarity on the project's future, allowing a focus on progress.
Sandon Capital
31 Oct 2024
$0.32
Summary
- Sandon Capital notes that the construction of BCI’s Mardi salt project is progressing, with $788 million invested as of 30 September 2024.
- Construction is currently 50% complete.
- In early October, BCI achieved financial close on a $981 million syndicated debt facility.
- The first drawdown from this facility is anticipated in the March quarter of 2025.
- BCI is on track for the first shipment of salt in the December quarter of 2026.
- The project is expected to establish BCI as a significant supplier of high-quality industrial salt to global markets for many decades.
Ryder Capital
30 Sept 2024
$0.29
Summary
- BCI gained +32% over the quarter following Commonwealth Government environmental approval for the Optimised Mardie Project.
- Commitment to first salt on ship in Q2 FY27, with over 50% of construction complete and on track.
- Financial Close achieved on a $981m syndicated project debt facility, with binding agreements in place.
- Focus now shifts to meeting conditions for debt drawdown in early CY2025.
- Expect additional positive updates on offtake agreements, approvals, and construction progress in the coming months.
- BCI now represents the largest position in the Portfolio, valued at $17.1m present value and historical cost of $14.9m.
Sandon Capital
30 Sept 2024
$0.29
Summary
- BCI Minerals Ltd received Commonwealth Government approval for the Optimised Mardi Project.
- This milestone allows operations to commence and further construction in the northern project area.
- As of early September 2024, 48% of the salt-first component of the Mardie Project has been completed.
- Over $700 million of shareholders’ funds have been invested in the project.
- BCI is on track for the first shipment of salt in the December quarter of 2026.
- The company is expected to become a significant supplier of high-quality industrial salt to global markets for decades.
- Over the next 12 months, Sandon Capital anticipates further progress on construction and a final investment decision on the sulphate of potash (SOP) plant.
Ryder Capital
30 June 2024
$0.24
Summary
- Ryder Capital has increased its holdings in BCI Minerals Ltd through a convertible note and equity placement.
- The portfolio weighting for BCI Minerals Ltd has risen from 7.42% to 11.15%.
- The share price of BCI Minerals Ltd is trading significantly below Ryder Capital's assessed intrinsic worth.
- The market continues to largely undervalue BCI Minerals Ltd.
Ryder Capital
31 Mar 2024
$0.24
Summary
- Ryder Capital holds a $5m convertible note in BCI Minerals, converted at a price of $0.2182 during a recent capital raise.
- They opportunistically acquired additional BCI shares under $0.23 after unexpected weakness in the share price post-capital raise.
- BCI Minerals experienced a 17% decline in share price over the quarter despite successfully completing a $315m equity raise.
- The funding for the Mardie Salt Project is now fully secured, following shareholder approval.
- Focus will shift to operational advancements, including construction, final approvals, and binding offtake agreements.
- The decline in share price is viewed as surprising and disappointing, as Ryder Capital believes it undervalues BCI.
- They anticipate further opportunities for project cost savings and continued construction progress.
Ryder Capital
30 Sept 2023
$0.26
Summary
- BCI Minerals is advancing the Mardie Salt and Sulphate of Potash Project with significant milestones achieved during the quarter.
- Updated base case cost estimates secured after a ~12 month review, resulting in total required project debt finance of $981m.
- Debt package includes: $490m from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund (NAIF), $160m from Export Finance Australia (EFA), $150m from Export Development Canada (EDC), and $181m from commercial banks.
- Government debt provider support underscores the strategic importance of the project, projected to deliver $378m in steady state net cash flow p.a. over the ~60 year project life.
- Entered non-binding MoU with PT Mineral Industri Indonesia (MIND ID) for potential salt offtake of up to 1Mt p.a. and potential equity investment of up to $100m.
- Outlook for the salt market is improving driven by growing demand in Asia.
Ryder Capital
31 Mar 2023
$0.23
Summary
- Ryder Capital has a strategic stake in BCI Minerals and is collaborating closely with the company.
- Efforts are focused on finalizing a revised cost to complete and funding solution for the Mardie Salt and Sulphate Project.
- This project is viewed as ultra long duration with very attractive unit economics once operational in 2026/27.
- If successfully funded, built, and commissioned, the project is expected to generate large equity free cash flows.
- The project will also benefit from several macroeconomic tailwinds for both salt and sulphate of potash.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI)?
Fund managers including Ryder Capital and Sandon Capital have invested in BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI).
Why do fund managers invest in BCI Minerals Ltd?
Fund managers invest in BCI Minerals Ltd due to its robust asset base and the significant progress of the Mardie Salt Project, which is over 69% complete and fully funded. The project promises steady-state annual EBITDA of approximately A$392 million and is poised to benefit from an emerging supply deficit in salt in Asia. Additionally, with the Commonwealth government approvals in place, operational risks have decreased substantially. The potential for high cash flows and fully franked dividends further enhances the investment appeal.
What happened to BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI)?
Fund managers are investing in BCI Minerals Ltd due to its ownership of the Mardie project, a significant solar evaporation salt and sulphate of potash (SOP) project in Australia. With the project over 69% complete and on track for first production in late 2026, it is expected to generate steady-state annual EBITDA of approximately A$392 million. BCI is set to become Australia’s first domestic SOP producer amid a growing supply deficit in Asia, which supports favorable pricing. The project is fully funded, with strong customer demand anticipated from major markets, ensuring robust cash flow and a potential high-margin income stream from its infrastructure investment. All of these factors contribute to BCI’s strong position in the market, making it an attractive opportunity for investors.
What is the short interest in BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI)?
The short interest in BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI) is 0.03% which makes it the 476th most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 2.9B shares that BCI Minerals Ltd has on issue, 754.8K have been sold short.
What does BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX:BCI) do?
BCI Minerals Ltd. is a mineral resources company, which engages in developing and industrial mineral business with salt and potash as its initial focus. It operates through the Mardie and Corporate and Other segments. The Mardie segment includes all activities related to the development and future operation of the Mardie Salt Operation and Potash Project which is the Group's principal project and primary focus of capital investment. The Corporate and Other segment focuses on the head office and corporate support functions, such as executive management, finance, legal, governance, and other administrative functions. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.