Fund Manager Summary on Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP)
Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP) has faced recent volatility following a disappointing FY26 guidance that downgraded production expectations by 11%, raising concerns over management credibility just weeks after its ASX debut. Despite these setbacks, there is consensus among fund managers that the company remains well-positioned due to its acquisition of the Telfer mine and the Haverion project, with cash flow generated from Telfer expected to support Haverion's development. Fund managers highlighted the structural tailwinds from rising gold prices, but also noted operational risks linked to stockpile grades and increased capital expenditure forecasts. With a significant cash balance exceeding A$1 billion and the potential for additional reserves at Haverion, investors may see long-term value, while immediate focus will likely remain on operational consistency and management's ability to regain market trust.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 11 insights from 6 fund managers regarding their investment in Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Firetrail Investments
30 Sept 2025
$7.45
Summary
- Gold miner Greatland Resources rebounded sharply in September.
- Gold price rose ~12% to near record highs above US$3,800/oz.
- Firetrail Investments continues to hold because of the anticipated operational results for the September quarter.
- Greatland is viewed as the most undervalued gold producer on the ASX.
- Firetrail expects a rerating as market confidence in the Telfer operation increases.
Prime Value Asset Management
30 Sept 2025
$7.45
Summary
- Prime Value Asset Management rarely invests in IPOs, due to limited information at the time of the initial offering.
- This year, the fund initiated a position in two IPOs, with Greatland Resources being one of them.
- The fund manager believes that Greatland will perform well, consistent with their historical principles regarding IPOs.
- Greatland’s share price has benefited from stronger gold prices in the current year.
- The primary reason for investing in Greatland is its acquisition of the Telfer Gold Mine and Havieron Gold Project from Newmont, expected in late 2024.
- The context of these acquisitions is significant, as Newmont was divesting non-core assets.
- Greatland’s proximity to these Tier 1 high-quality assets positions the company to maximize efficiency and develop these projects over time.
- The acquisition was made at a reasonable price, coinciding with the rise in gold prices, enhancing the transaction's attractiveness.
Ausbil Investment Management
30 Sept 2025
$7.45
Summary
- Ausbil notes that Greatland Gold (GGP) faced significant challenges in July due to a surprise FY26 production downgrade shortly after its IPO.
- The production downgrade was a disappointing outcome that negatively impacted management's credibility in the market.
- Following the downgrade, GGP experienced a recovery attributed to a strong gold price towards the end of the quarter.
- The downgrade also included increased cost guidance, compounding the concerns raised by investors.
- Credibility in public markets is crucial; Ausbil continues to hold due to the potential recovery in share price driven by gold market dynamics.
- However, the material downgrade just after the IPO presents a tough start for GGP on the ASX.
First Sentier Investors
30 Sept 2025
$7.45
Summary
- First Sentier Investors exited their position in Greatland Gold (GGP) due to a disappointing post-listing update.
- GGP listed in Australia in late June 2025.
- Within five weeks, GGP's quarterly production report downgraded FY26 production by 11% compared to prospectus forecasts.
- Cost guidance was raised by 4%, and capex increased from $80m to $360m.
- This led to a significant valuation drop of approximately 12%.
- Given the downgrade's magnitude and reduced confidence in GGP's targets, First Sentier Investors opted to recycle capital into Newmont Corporation (NEM).
- There is more confidence in Newmont Corporation's ability to meet its forecasts.
Tyndall Asset Management
31 July 2025
$5.30
Summary
- Greatland Resources underperformed after providing an underwhelming FY26 guidance.
- Downgrading prospectus guidance so soon after its IPO is very disappointing.
- Initial inclination was to exit the position due to management’s credibility being questioned.
- Decided to hold a small position as the share price reaction was savage relative to the valuation downgrade.
- The adjustment to stockpile grades is a short-term cash flow issue.
- The majority of the value in Greatland is concentrated in the Havieron project, where the investment thesis and value remain unchanged.
- Management has learned that credibility and market trust are hard to gain and easily lost.
Seneca Financial Solutions
31 July 2025
$5.30
Summary
- Seneca Financial Solutions continues to monitor Greatland Resources (GGP) closely following its recent IPO on the ASX.
- Despite a strong initial performance, GGP's stock fell ~20% after quarterly production and guidance missed expectations by 9%.
- Greatland acknowledged risk weighting regarding potential lower gold grades from existing ROM stockpiles prior to its acquisition of Telfer.
- The company also flagged concerns with certain open pit areas scheduled for mining in FY26.
- To address these challenges, Greatland plans to conduct 240,000 metres of drilling, which may impose significant costs on shareholders.
Firetrail Investments
31 July 2025
$5.30
Summary
- Firetrail Investments notes that Greatland Gold has disappointed the market with lower-than-expected FY26 guidance for gold production.
- The company attributes this to lower-than-expected grades from Telfer stockpiles.
- The market's response has been harsh, reflecting concerns over the downgraded outlook.
- Despite this, Firetrail Investments believes the issue is likely confined to the stockpiles, which have a limited lifespan of just a few more years.
- The Haverion development remains a significant opportunity, with potential for upside from high-grade material sourced from Telfer underground.
- Firetrail Investments continues to hold its position as they assess the long-term potential of Haverion.
Firetrail Investments
30 June 2025
$7.11
Summary
- Greatland Resources Ltd. listed on the ASX in June, marking a significant milestone.
- Acquired both the Telfer mine and a 70% stake in the Haverion project from Newmont in late 2024.
- Shareholders have benefitted from higher gold prices since the acquisition.
- The management team has added material value to the company.
- Drilling results near Telfer have surprised to the upside, enhancing cash flow prospects.
- This cash flow is expected to support the development of the long life, low cost Haverion project.
- Firetrail Investments continues to hold its position in Greatland due to these positive developments.
Tyndall Asset Management
30 June 2025
$7.11
Summary
- Tyndall Asset Management continues to hold a positive view on Greatland Resources Ltd.
- The Telfer asset, previously operated by Newcrest Mining and now Newmont, is considered highly cash generative due to its open pit and easy to mine nature.
- The limited mine life of Telfer is a concern, contributing to Newmont's decision to sell the asset.
- Greatland Resources discovered Havieron, a development project located 45kms from Telfer, with a resource of 7.0moz Au.
- Havieron will be developed as an underground mine, utilizing Telfer’s existing facilities for processing.
- With $580m of net cash and projected cash flow from Telfer, Greatland is expected to exceed $1bn of net cash.
- This strong financial position allows Greatland Resources to self-fund the Havieron development.
- Greatland Resources is currently trading at a material discount to its Australian peers, which Tyndall expects to close as more investors become familiar with the company.
Firetrail Investments
31 Mar 2025
Unknown
Summary
- Greatland Gold has seen a rise in stock value due to an operational update and increasing gold prices.
- The acquisition of 100% of the Telfer Gold mine and the Havieron Project from Newmont is a significant catalyst.
- This deal is compared to Evolution's acquisition of Cowal in 2015, highlighting its potential for investors.
- Good deals in resources are rare; many result in value destruction when commodity prices fall.
- Exceptions include purchasing Tier-1 assets from motivated sellers or unwanted smaller assets from major producers.
- The Telfer mine features Australia’s third largest gold processing plant, with a capacity of ~20 million tonnes annually.
- The Havieron orebody, with ~8.4Moz of resources, is considered Australia's best undeveloped project.
- Greatland Gold is currently listed on the AIM but plans to transition to the ASX in mid-2025, enhancing market recognition.
- The Telfer mine was divested by Newmont as part of a strategy to raise US$2.5bn post-merger with Newcrest.
- The acquisition was well-timed, with gold prices rising from ~US$1,900/oz to nearly US$2,900/oz since the deal was priced.
- Greatland Gold produced 30koz of gold in just 27 days of ownership, exceeding initial plans.
- There is potential for extending mine life and reserves through strategic cutbacks originally part of Newmont's plan.
- Firetrail Investments continues to hold because Greatland Gold represents a unique opportunity in a rising gold market.
- The upcoming ASX listing in 2025 is anticipated to further enhance valuation and market positioning.
Firetrail Investments
31 Jan 2025
Unknown
Summary
- Firetrail Investments notes that Greatland Gold shares have outperformed following a positive update for December.
- Gold production at the recently acquired Telfer mine exceeded expectations, performing well above the acquisition case.
- The cash balance of Greatland Resources improved significantly, reaching A$145m.
- Additionally, the USD gold price increased by 7% during the month.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP)?
Fund managers including Firetrail Investments, Tyndall Asset Management, Seneca Financial Solutions, Prime Value Asset Management, Ausbil Investment Management and First Sentier Investors have invested in Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP).
Why do fund managers invest in Greatland Resources Ltd?
Fund managers invest in Greatland Resources Ltd due to its ownership of valuable assets, notably the Telfer mine and the Haverion project, both of which are strategically located in Australia's mineral-rich region. The company's recent performance has been bolstered by rising gold prices, enhancing cash flow and growth prospects. Additionally, Greatland's strong cash position allows it to self-fund the development of Haverion, positioning it well for future revenue generation despite potential short-term production challenges at Telfer.
What happened to Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP)?
Fund managers have shown interest in Greatland Resources Ltd primarily due to its strategic acquisition of the Telfer Gold Mine and Havieron Gold Project from Newmont, which enhances its position in high-quality gold assets. Despite experiencing setbacks from early production downgrades post-IPO, the company's recovery alongside a rising gold price has led many to view it as an undervalued player in the gold market. The proximity to Tier 1 assets is expected to maximize operational efficiencies and create long-term value, despite concerns over management credibility following production guidance revisions.
What is the short interest in Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP)?
The short interest in Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP) is 3.37% which makes it the 68th most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 672.9M shares that Greatland Resources Ltd has on issue, 22.7M have been sold short.
What does Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX:GGP) do?
Greatland Resources Ltd. operates as a gold and copper mining company. It focuses on discovery, development, extraction, processing, and sale of precious and base metals. The firm operates the Telfer gold mine, one of Australia’s gold-copper mining complexes and is concurrently developing the nearby Havieron gold-copper project and exploring across a significant regional portfolio. The company was founded on May 30, 2023 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.