Fund Manager Summary on HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC)
In February 2026, Renaissance Asset Management commented that HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC) appears to be starting to resolve its problems and presents a contrarian recovery opportunity, though it is not yet out of the woods. Across fund managers, commentary on HMC Capital (ASX:HMC) weighs recent operational setbacks and market-driven valuation pressure more heavily than longer-term opportunity: investors cite concentrated exposure to DigiCo (c.19–20%) and HealthCo (c.23%) — the latter affected by Healthscope issues — weak trading of listed vehicles (HCW down ~30%, DGT trading ~35% below its IPO) and difficulty securing institutional partners for the company’s $950m Neon/Neoen Victorian acquisition, which increased reliance on debt and risked forcing a divestment and reducing fee generation; these factors drove a sharp share-price de-rating from late‑2024 highs and led several managers to exit positions while others retained conviction in management and the longer-term alternative‑asset manager thesis. The consensus view highlights key actionable insights: structural tailwinds remain in digital infrastructure, renewable energy and private credit, but HMC must prove it can secure third‑party capital and preserve balance‑sheet discipline to realise fee‑generating growth; monitor progress on capital partnerships for the Neon assets, resolution of HealthCo/Healthscope tenant exposures, the trading performance of DGT and HCW as indicators of public capital access and reputation, any further reliance on debt or asset sales, and concrete evidence of third‑party commitments or mandates that would support FUM/AUM targets.
Commentary From The Managers
There are 21 insights from 11 fund managers regarding their investment in HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC) available on Thesis Tracker.
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Updates are made available to members within 12 hours of being released. The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
Commentary From The Managers
Investors Mutual Limited
28 Feb 2026
$2.70
Summary
- Investors Mutual Limited believes HMC Capital remains a sound long-term investment and continues to hold despite the significant share price decline, viewing the sell-off as an overreaction rather than a reflection of fundamental deterioration.
- HMC Capital's share price fell -33.8% during the period, driven by investor frustration over the pace of progress toward long-term growth targets and contagion from weakness in overseas alternative asset manager valuations.
- Despite the sharp decline, fundraising momentum has remained intact, indicating that underlying business activity continues to progress.
- Investors Mutual Limited views the sell-off as overblown and maintains conviction that HMC Capital's longer-term prospects remain strong.
Renaissance Asset Management
9 Feb 2026
$3.72
Summary
- Renaissance Asset Management believes HMC is positioned for a recovery and increased their position because the share price had plunged 70 per cent to below $3, creating a compelling contrarian entry point.
- Timing: The team dived back in by Christmas when the stock hit those low levels.
- Management: They view veteran deal maker Di Pilla as beginning to resolve key problems and to be central to the turnaround.
- Outlook: They expect the stock to be set for a recovery this year, contingent on execution.
- Risk: “They are not out of the woods yet,” acknowledging ongoing operational and turnaround uncertainty.
- Investment stance: A deliberate, contrarian position sized to reflect potential upside if remediation succeeds while accepting downside risk.
Seneca Financial Solutions
30 Nov 2025
$3.60
Summary
- HMC Capital (HMC) saw a significant rally, finishing up 26% towards the end of the month.
- Since 2020, HMC’s funds under management have grown at a 58% CAGR.
- Despite this growth, HMC Capital is currently trading at a near-all-time low price-to-book valuation of 0.75x (or a PE of ~12x).
- The low sentiment around HMC is driven by concerns related to affiliated vehicles, such as HCW’s tenant uncertainty, DigiCo’s share-price collapse, and temporary balance-sheet stretch due to the Neoen acquisition.
- Analysis from Seneca Financial Solutions indicates that these issues are expected to be largely immaterial to HMC’s earnings.
- These concerns are anticipated to be resolved in due course.
- HMC shares are currently trading at a 24% discount to book value, suggesting significant upside potential if sentiment improves.
Firetrail Investments
30 Nov 2025
$3.60
Summary
- HMC outperformed in November following a positive AGM.
- Management reiterated full-year guidance during the meeting.
- The market reacted positively to updates on third-party capital partnering across the funds management platform.
- HMC is closer to a resolution regarding its involvement with Healthscope, which is currently in receivership.
- Final bids for Healthscope's assets were received during the month.
- Insider buying provided further support to the share price.
- Firetrail Investments continues to hold due to these positive developments.
Ellerston Capital
30 Nov 2025
$3.60
Summary
- HMC Capital Ltd. has experienced a significant decline in share price, dropping from a peak of $12.54 in November 2024 to a low of $2.90 in November 2025.
- Following this low, the share price saw a 33% increase over two weeks, closing at $3.87 at the end of the month.
- A notable downgrade in earnings forecasts for FY27-28 was issued by a major analyst, citing lower assumed FUM margins and slower FUM growth.
- Despite the downgrade, the analyst considered HMC to be undervalued and below his downside scenario, indicating potential for recovery.
- This perspective may have contributed to a 20% rally in HMC's stock over the last two days of trading.
- Ellerston Capital continues to hold its position in HMC Capital Ltd. based on the belief that the current valuation presents a compelling opportunity.
Firetrail Investments
30 Sept 2025
$3.18
Summary
- Firetrail Investments notes that asset manager HMC underperformed the market in September.
- HMC's HealthCo REIT announced a one-month extension of its partial rent deferral agreement with Healthscope.
- Firetrail Investments views this update as immaterial.
- Firetrail Investments continues to be attracted to HMC's diversified alternative asset management business.
- Firetrail Investments highlights HMC's compelling valuation as a key factor in their investment thesis.
Ellerston Capital
30 Sept 2025
$3.18
Summary
- HMC Capital Ltd. has experienced a significant decline in share price, falling from a peak of $12.54/share in late November 2024.
- The decline followed successful transactions, including the Sigma Healthcare/Chemist Warehouse deal and the Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) IPO.
- HMC holds approximately 20% of DGT, which is now trading 47% below its issue price of $5.00.
- The broader performance of HMC's listed entities has been underwhelming, contributing to the de-rating.
- HMC's share price has collapsed by 75%, currently sitting at $3.18/share.
- The stock remains friendless, with no specific news explaining its 17% fall this month.
- Ellerston Capital continues to hold its position in HMC, reflecting a long-term investment perspective despite recent challenges.
Seneca Financial Solutions
30 Sept 2025
$3.18
Summary
- Seneca Financial Solutions has initiated a position in HMC Capital (HMC) despite a 20% decline in share price.
- The fund manager views insider buying as a positive indicator of confidence in the company.
- Quality management is highlighted as a key strength of HMC Capital.
- Seneca believes in a relatively simple turnaround strategy that could benefit investors.
- The market remains skeptical about HMC's balance sheet and its ability to raise funds for growth.
- Seneca Financial Solutions sees potential for significant valuation increases compared to the current share price.
Antares Capital
30 Sept 2025
$3.18
Summary
- Antares Capital exited their investment in HMC during the month.
- A small leeway was allowed post results meeting to assess progress.
- Focus was on stalled processes regarding healthcare real estate investment trust.
- Also considered the disposal of its renewable energy business.
- Neither of these initiatives have progressed as expected.
- Antares Capital believes there are better uses of the capital.
- They also see a need for a better allocation within the portfolio.
Oracle Advisory Group
30 Sept 2025
$3.18
Summary
- Oracle Advisory Group has sold out of HMC Capital due to challenges in raising capital for its energy portfolio.
- The company set an ambitious target of $50bn in Assets Under Management (AUM) within the next 3-5 years, up from the current $18bn.
- Concerns about capital raising significantly undermine confidence in achieving this target.
- Oracle Advisory Group is pleased to have exited this position, which is no longer part of the index.
- Capital has been rotated into Gemlife.
Antares Capital
30 June 2025
$5.10
Summary
- Antares Capital sold their investment in HMC Capital (HMC) due to growing concerns about risks related to its $950 million acquisition of Neon Australia’s Victorian assets.
- The acquisition was intended to seed HMC’s energy transition portfolio, a key component of its growth ambitions.
- It became apparent that HMC was struggling to secure capital partners for the purchase, leading to increased reliance on debt.
- This reliance on debt eliminated HMC’s ability to generate management fees on the transaction.
- There was a significant risk that HMC would be forced to divest the acquired assets, jeopardizing future earnings growth.
- HMC’s listed vehicles, HealthCo (HCW) and DigiCo (DGT), have materially underperformed, impacting overall investor confidence.
- HCW has dropped around 30% in the past year due to issues with Healthscope, while DGT is trading about 35% below its December 2024 IPO price.
- The poor performance raised serious questions about HMC’s future capacity to raise capital through public vehicles.
- Given these material risks and uncertainties regarding strategy and capital raising, Antares Capital chose to reallocate capital to opportunities with better risk-adjusted returns.
Clime Investment Management
31 May 2025
$4.85
Summary
- Clime Investment Management sold their investment in HMC, an Australian alternative funds manager.
- The decision followed developments in capital markets and an earnings update from HMC during their May investor day.
- Clime revised their outlook for HMC's value creation potential in digital infrastructure and renewable energy.
- This review led to the difficult decision to exit their small holding in HMC.
Clime Investment Management
30 Apr 2025
$4.86
Summary
- HMC was a detractor over the month.
- Clime Investment Management notes the company hosted an investor day.
- Investor day showcased strong management credentials and attractive strategy.
- Concerns arose regarding the need to raise equity for recent investments in the renewable energy sector.
Cooper Investors
31 Mar 2025
$6.23
Summary
- Cooper Investors notes a sharp pullback in HMC Capital (HMC) due to negative market sentiment.
- Key concerns include HMC's exposure to data centres, particularly through a 19% ownership of DigiCo Infrastructure REIT.
- Sector struggles are linked to fears that DeepSeek may significantly reduce demand.
- HMC also has a 23% exposure to Healthscope via HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW), which is facing pressures.
- Despite recent challenges, Cooper Investors sees long-term potential in HMC, drawing parallels with Macquarie and Blackstone, two successful alternative asset managers.
- The investment thesis for HMC, outlined in previous communications, remains intact and Cooper Investors continues to hold the position.
Clime Investment Management
31 Mar 2025
$6.23
Summary
- HMC Capital was a detractor to performance over the month.
- Stock faced aggressive sell-down due to concerns over growth in funds under management (FUM).
- Negative sentiment surrounding private credit and digital infrastructure asset classes impacted performance.
- Publicly listed stocks HCW and DGT created by HMC are unlikely to grow due to depressed share prices.
- The majority of HMC's FUM and reputation as an alternative fund manager is tied to unlisted funds.
- Clime Investment Management continues to hold due to the strength of HMC's unlisted funds.
Smallco Investment Manager
31 Mar 2025
$6.23
Summary
- HMC’s operating earnings have more than tripled.
- The stock price has fallen 36% due to concerns about HMC’s growth outlook.
- The decline is linked to ongoing issues with two HMC-listed vehicles, DGT and HCW.
- These issues may take time to resolve.
- Despite challenges, HMC has growth opportunities in multiple areas.
- It is crucial for HMC to demonstrate its ability to source institutional capital to fund these growth opportunities.
- Public markets are currently less receptive to new capital initiatives.
- Smallco Investment Manager continues to hold because of the potential growth despite current challenges.
Cooper Investors
31 Dec 2024
$9.86
Summary
- Cooper Investors continues to build on the portfolio's position in capital-light alternative asset manager HMC Capital (HMC).
- HMC was founded by ex-UBS investment banker David Di Pilla, successfully acquiring the Masters Property portfolio in 2016.
- This acquisition returned a >6x multiple on invested capital, underpinning the IPO of HMC in 2019.
- HMC has grown to manage approximately $17.5bn in assets under management (AUM).
- Established platforms operate in four key verticals: Real Estate (~$10bn), Private Credit (~$2bn), Digital Infrastructure (~$5bn), and Private Equity (~$1bn).
- A fifth vertical, Energy Transition, is in development with a second seed asset acquisition agreement signed.
- The verticals are in end markets supported by positive long-term trends and scalable growth opportunities.
- HMC's current trajectory is likened to that of Macquarie and Blackstone 25 years ago, both of which have scaled tremendously.
- HMC's current stage is comparable to Macquarie and Blackstone when they had ~$20bn in AUM.
- The investment proposition is backed by the potential for HMC to grow from $17.5bn AUM to $50bn over the next 3-5 years.
- This growth could yield significant upside to the current $10ps share price.
- The pathway to $50bn AUM includes: growth in real estate, private credit expansion, digital infrastructure development, and execution of the energy transition platform.
- The management team is founder-led with significant ownership and a strong track record.
Smallco Investment Manager
31 Dec 2024
$9.86
Summary
- Smallco Investment Manager highlights HMC Capital (HMC) as a key stock driving performance in 2024.
- HMC, listed in 2019, transitioned from an internally managed property group to a diversified real assets manager.
- The company now operates across real estate, private equity, digital infrastructure, private credit, and energy transition sectors.
- Initial investment by Smallco Investment Manager occurred in April 2023 at a price of $3.50, with HMC’s assets under management (AUM) at approximately $6bn.
- In under two years, HMC’s AUM has surged to about $16bn and the share price has nearly tripled.
- HMC aims for ambitious growth, targeting $50bn+ in AUM in the coming years.
- The firm’s success hinges on its ability to identify growth sectors and raise capital effectively.
- Future share price performance is expected to remain strong if HMC approaches its AUM target.
- However, the capacity to raise funds rapidly will depend on the performance of the funds managed by HMC.
- The recent market response to the DigiCo REIT listing illustrates potential risks to HMC’s funding model.
Wilson Asset Management
31 Oct 2024
$10.17
Summary
- HMC Capital completed a $300 million institutional capital raise.
- The funds will be used for the $1.9 billion purchase of Global Switch Australia, a Sydney data centre owner.
- This acquisition will serve as a seed asset for HMC's new Global DigiCo Platform.
- There is strong demand from investors for high-quality digital infrastructure assets, leading to an oversubscribed placement.
- Global Switch presents significant growth opportunities with a large-scale development pipeline.
- This acquisition is expected to provide solid exposure to the burgeoning data centre market.
- HMC Capital’s management is exploring further data centre opportunities in the US.
- These acquisitions are anticipated to drive earnings and valuation growth in the coming years.
Cooper Investors
30 Sept 2024
$8.20
Summary
- Cooper Investors recently added HMC Capital (HMC) to the portfolio.
- HMC is a capital light alternative asset manager at an early stage in their growth journey.
- HMC currently manages $12.6bn in funds across four key verticals:
- Real Estate: $9.6bn
- Private Credit: $1.6bn
- Digital Infrastructure: $0.7bn
- Private Equity: $0.8bn
- A fifth vertical, a Renewables platform, is under development and targets a launch during FY25.
- The verticals operate in end markets supported by positive long-term trends with significant scalability.
- Each vertical has the potential to match HMC’s total current FUM of $12.6bn.
- The opportunity set, combined with a founder-led management team with significant ownership, lays the groundwork for growth.
- Cooper Investors sees potential for HMC to grow into a $50bn+ alternative asset manager over the medium term.
- This represents compelling risk-adjusted value latency.
Oracle Advisory Group
30 June 2024
$7.02
Summary
- Oracle Advisory Group has added a new position in HMC Capital as of April.
- HMC upgraded its earnings guidance from 33 cents per share to 40 cents per share in May.
- Founded by David Di Pilla, HMC Capital listed on the ASX in 2019.
- HMC manages over $12.5bn in funds across two listed REITs, HomeCo Daily Needs (HDN) and HealthCo (HCW), as well as several unlisted funds.
- Recently diversified FUM into private credit and launched a high-conviction strategy.
- Acquired Payton Capital, a commercial real estate debt manager with $1.5bn in assets, and launched a private credit platform.
- Aim to establish a $5bn+ diversified private credit platform, driven by strong demand in the current high-risk-free rate environment.
- High-conviction strategy gaining media attention, involved in proposed merger of Sigma Healthcare and Chemist Warehouse and active roles in Lendlease, Ingenia Communities, and Graincorp.
- Oracle Advisory Group believes HMC's high-conviction strategy can scale well and become highly profitable.
- HMC has a strong track record of high performance since its listing.
- Oracle Advisory Group is pleased to place capital alongside smart managers at HMC.
The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC)?
Fund managers including Cooper Investors, Oracle Advisory Group, Antares Capital, Wilson Asset Management, Smallco Investment Manager, Clime Investment Management, Seneca Financial Solutions, Ellerston Capital, Firetrail Investments, Renaissance Asset Management and Investors Mutual Limited have invested in HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC).
Why do fund managers invest in HMC Capital Ltd?
Fund managers invest in HMC Capital Ltd due to its position in alternative asset management, substantial growth potential, and strategic exposure to key sectors like data infrastructure and healthcare. Despite recent struggles, including underperformance in its listed vehicles and challenges in raising capital, the company’s strong management and long-term vision remain appealing. Additionally, HMC's diversified portfolio and attractive valuation metrics present a potential risk/reward opportunity for investors willing to navigate current uncertainties.
What happened to HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC)?
Fund managers are currently maintaining investments in HMC Capital Ltd due to multiple factors, such as strong insider buying, quality management, and the potential for a straightforward turnaround strategy despite recent share price declines. They recognize HMC's robust growth in funds under management, trading at historically low price-to-book ratios, indicating significant upside potential. However, concerns about the balance sheet and capital-raising capabilities persist, which caution some managers against holding the stock.
What is the short interest in HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC)?
The short interest in HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC) is 6.99% which makes it the 26th most shorted stock on the ASX. Of the 412.6M shares that HMC Capital Ltd has on issue, 28.8M have been sold short.
What does HMC Capital Ltd (ASX:HMC) do?
HMC Capital Ltd. engages in the business of funds management through ownership and management of real asset focused funds. It operates through the following segments: Investments, Fund Management, and Corporate. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Double Bay, Australia.