Fund Manager Summary
The fund managers believe that QBE Insurance Group Ltd presents a significant investment opportunity as it approaches a turning point in its performance. In their opinion, the company’s recent results, including a 15% increase in underwriting profit and a notable improvement in Gross Written Premiums (GWP), indicate a shift after years of stagnation. The North American segment has shown operational improvements and better reserving practices, reducing future risk. Additionally, QBE stands to benefit from rising interest rates, with its substantial investment book expected to generate an incremental $240 million in earnings. With QBE currently trading at approximately 8.5x FY23 consensus P/E, below its historical average, the fund managers assert that the market has not yet fully recognized this inflection point in the company’s trajectory.
Source: Trading View
Commentary From The Managers
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Pendal Group
1 Dec 2025
$19.28
Summary
- Pendal Group views QBE Insurance’s recent 3Q update as initially positive, highlighted by flat pricing growth and mid-single digit revenue growth.
- Despite the positive outlook, the overall quality of results was considered poor due to higher claims ex-catastrophes.
- QBE reported a benign period for catastrophes, with costs $250 million below budget, indicating potential future claims risks.
- The company issued new guidance for margins to remain steady into CY26, aligning with market expectations.
- Details on ex-catastrophe claims were vague, raising concerns about visibility and risk as they move toward 2026.
- Accident and health claims were identified as an area for improvement, but they only accounted for one third of the overall miss.
- The CEO has maintained a consistent performance over the past four years, focusing on overall results rather than underlying metrics.
- Market skepticism remains, especially as the pricing cycle is expected to become more challenging.
- Currently, QBE trades at a 10x PE with capital returns exceeding 7% and underlying growth projected at 3-5%, suggesting the cautious outlook is already reflected in the stock price.
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Commentary From The Managers
Pendal Group
1 Dec 2025
$19.28
- Pendal Group views QBE Insurance’s recent 3Q update as initially positive, highlighted by flat pricing growth and mid-single digit revenue growth.
- Despite the positive outlook, the overall quality of results was considered poor due to higher claims ex-catastrophes.
- QBE reported a benign period for catastrophes, with costs $250 million below budget, indicating potential future claims risks.
- The company issued new guidance for margins to remain steady into CY26, aligning with market expectations.
- Details on ex-catastrophe claims were vague, raising concerns about visibility and risk as they move toward 2026.
- Accident and health claims were identified as an area for improvement, but they only accounted for one third of the overall miss.
- The CEO has maintained a consistent performance over the past four years, focusing on overall results rather than underlying metrics.
- Market skepticism remains, especially as the pricing cycle is expected to become more challenging.
- Currently, QBE trades at a 10x PE with capital returns exceeding 7% and underlying growth projected at 3-5%, suggesting the cautious outlook is already reflected in the stock price.
Summary
Akambo
24 Nov 2025
$19.92
- Akambo continues to hold QBE Insurance Group Ltd as a conviction play.
- The company has spent years simplifying its business, which is starting to yield positive results.
- QBE's return on equity has surged to around 16 per cent.
- The stock is trading at approximately 10 times earnings, indicating it is undervalued.
- QBE offers a dividend yield of 5 per cent, enhancing its attractiveness.
- According to Barrow, QBE is “really cheap for a top large stock”.
Summary
Pendal Group
31 Aug 2025
$21.51
- Pendal Group notes that QBE’s 1H FY25 underwriting profit exceeded consensus by 3%, aided by positive one-offs from reserve releases and benign catastrophe claims.
- Excluding these one-offs, underwriting profit would have missed expectations by 6%.
- 1H results were affected by two large claims, leading to unchanged CY25 guidance.
- Out-year consensus earnings expectations have only been reduced by approximately 1-2%.
- Pricing has decelerated in the June quarter and is currently flat on a run-rate basis.
- While there is potential for negative price movements, any declines are expected to be modest and should not impact volume growth or future margins.
- The share price appears to have overreacted, with the stock trading at a PE of 11x, compared to a historical range of 10-14x.
- Despite the share price reaction, returns remain at the top of the long-term range.
Summary
Tyndall Asset Management
31 Aug 2025
$21.51
- Tyndall Asset Management notes that QBE Insurance (QBE) has underperformed recently.
- The market has raised questions regarding the composition of QBE's half year result.
- Despite this, QBE is trading at 11.5 times earnings, significantly lower than the market average of close to 20 times.
- This valuation suggests that QBE offers considerable value in an otherwise expensive market.
- Tyndall Asset Management continues to hold its position in QBE due to these favorable valuation metrics.
Summary
Wilson Asset Management
8 Aug 2025
$21.39
- Wilson Asset Management suggests that negative share price reactions in QBE can create opportunities for investors.
- Despite impressive headline results, concerns persist regarding the global insurance premium rate cycle.
- There are positive indicators: QBE is on track for their full year, catastrophes are below budget, and they are extremely well capitalised with a ROE above 19%.
- Concerns remain about the premium rate cycle and the ability for top-line growth into next year.
- A recent -6% share price move is seen as excessive given no changes to earnings estimates and existing valuation support.
- QBE often trades on sentiment, leading to price swings that can exceed what fundamentals would suggest, creating investment opportunities.
- QBE has been in the portfolio for a couple of years, and the fund continues to hold.
- Key factors influencing QBE's performance from June to December include hurricane season and US crop performance.
- While premium rates are a focus, rate adequacy in relation to claims experience is deemed more critical.
- QBE is confident in their claims position and has prior year reserving to mitigate downside risks.
Summary
First Sentier Investors
1 Aug 2025
$22.90
- First Sentier Investors acknowledges the effective leadership of CEO Andrew Horton in enhancing QBE's performance.
- QBE has transitioned from a challenging period (2010-2020) marked by poor acquisitions.
- There has been a systematic and patient improvement in QBE's earnings, particularly in North America.
- Return on Equity (ROE) has improved significantly, rising from 6%-9% to 15%-18%.
- First Sentier Investors sees continued potential for growth in QBE's stock moving forward.
Summary
Tyndall Asset Management
31 July 2025
$23.20
- QBE Insurance underperformed during the month, raising questions about the composition of its half year result.
- The results were roughly in-line with expectations, but concerns remain about the sustainability of its profits.
- Some profits were derived from the reestimation of prior year reserves, which has caused market skepticism.
- Currently trading at 11.5 times earnings, compared to the market average of close to 20 times earnings.
- Tyndall Asset Management believes QBE Insurance offers significant value in an expensive market.
Summary
Montgomery Investment Management
21 May 2025
$22.80
- Montgomery Investment Management continues to hold QBE due to its long-term potential and recent transformation under current management.
- The company has focused on profitability, discipline, and simplification, leading to significant internal improvements.
- Recent changes include more disciplined underwriting and portfolio simplification, which are gaining market recognition.
- The environment of rising insurance premiums and higher bond yields supports QBE’s strengths and earnings momentum.
- A strategic exit from non-core and underperforming business lines has redirected capital towards competitive markets.
- QBE’s combined operating ratio (COR) has improved due to disciplined underwriting and reduced exposure to losses.
- U.S. short-term bond yields have elevated investment income from QBE's A$30 billion portfolio.
- QBE’s profitability is now more balanced and resilient, supported by both underwriting and investment returns.
- Capital management has improved, with an increase in dividend payout ratio reflecting confidence in earnings quality.
- Despite progress, QBE trades at a valuation discount compared to peers, suggesting potential for growth.
- The market has yet to fully recognize the structural improvements in underwriting quality and investment income.
- With a clear strategy and favorable conditions, Montgomery Investment Management sees potential for further earnings growth and a multiple re-rating.
Summary
Maple-Brown Abbott
31 Mar 2025
$21.90
- Maple-Brown Abbott continues to hold QBE Insurance Group due to its positive performance.
- The company's earnings were ahead of market expectations, demonstrating strong financial health.
- There is a relatively upbeat outlook for premium growth, indicating potential for future profitability.
- Overall, the holding in QBE Insurance Group contributed positively with a gain of 18%.
Summary
Clime Investment Management
31 Mar 2025
$21.90
- QBE was a positive contributor in March, supported by a favourable earnings outlook following its FY24 results announcement in February.
- QBE's valuation remains undemanding.
- No direct news flow related to QBE during the month.
- Attended an investor briefing focused on its North American crop insurance business.
- The briefing discussed the potential risks to the heavily subsidised nature of US crop insurance.
- Concerns were raised about government spending reductions as indicated by President Trump.
- Clime Investment Management concluded that the likelihood of significant cuts remains low, due to the economic and national security importance of the US farming sector.
Summary
Yarra Capital Management
31 Dec 2024
$19.20
- QBE Insurance Group Ltd has outperformed following its third quarter trading update.
- The company reiterated guidance and demonstrated sound underlying trends.
- Yarra Capital Management continues to own the stock due to its transition to a simpler and lower risk business model.
- There is a belief that its strong underlying momentum is not fully reflected in the current valuation.
- Valuation reflects a 10.9-times P/E for FY25 and a 4.8% dividend yield.
Summary
Cooper Investors
31 Dec 2024
$19.20
- Cooper Investors sold their investment in QBE Insurance (QBE) amid significant portfolio changes.
- QBE has been one of the portfolio's largest active weights in recent years.
- The original investment was based on a low-risk turnaround focused on improving performance in the long underperforming North American division.
- Management actions and improved industry conditions have significantly enhanced the business outlook.
- The market is now expecting a recovery to a low-90s combined operating ratio in the coming years.
- The stock price doubled since purchase two and a half years ago.
- The turnaround opportunity is now realized and no longer considered latent.
- Risk-Adjusted Latency appears less compelling, prompting the exit.
Summary
Wilson Asset Management
30 Nov 2024
$19.94
- QBE Insurance Group is identified as a global commercial insurer.
- The recent rally in global bond yields, following Trump's election win, has positively impacted QBE's implied investment income.
- This rally is attributed to expectations of sustained fiscal deficits, a proposed tariff regime, and potential inflation surprises.
- Investment income significantly drives QBE's earnings, contributing over 40% of the company's pre-tax profit.
- In their recent quarterly update, QBE confirmed it is on track to meet earnings guidance, with global catastrophe costs below their allowance.
- Wilson Asset Management remains positive about QBE's outlook, anticipating a reduction in the valuation discount and potential capital management activities, such as a buyback.
Summary
Clime Investment Management
31 July 2024
$18.08
- Clime Investment Management observes that the insurance premium cycle remains strong, supported by global inflation data.
- QBE has announced its exit from the middle market business in the US, addressing challenges in scaling to meet combined ratio targets.
- This strategic exit allows QBE to concentrate on core strategies in commercial and specialty businesses that are scalable and yield higher margins.
- With a valuation around 9x NTM PE and a dividend yield of approximately 5.6%, QBE is perceived as a value investment.
- QBE is seen as a defensive position within a portfolio, particularly in the current volatile market conditions.
Summary
Cooper Investors
30 June 2024
$17.06
- Cooper Investors acknowledges QBE's decision to close its North American middle-market business as a favourable move.
- The closure addresses ongoing losses and dilutive effects on divisional and group margins.
- This exit is expected to enhance the group’s financial profile and lower property catastrophe exposure.
- It aims to eliminate distractions for management, simplifying operations.
- Achieving a 95% Combined Operating Ratio for the North American business is more attainable post-closure.
- QBE's guidance remains confirmed, although civil unrest impacts in New Caledonia may incur costs between $175-225mn.
- This news surprised some in the market, but it reflects QBE's risk assessment strategies.
- QBE demonstrated resilience by absorbing the civil unrest hit alongside other major events without significant disruption.
- The investment thesis remains underpinned by strong operating trends in the global insurance industry, showcasing minimal irrational market behaviour.
- Despite some challenges, QBE's North American turnaround is on track, based on insights gained from recent trips to the UK and US.
Summary
L1 Capital
30 June 2024
$17.06
- L1 Capital identified QBE Insurance as a leading contributor to their Catalyst Fund, showcasing their contrarian investment philosophy.
- Initial Investment Thesis: QBE was viewed as an undervalued business with improving operating conditions and strong catalysts for growth.
- Realized Catalysts: Key catalysts identified by L1 Capital have materialized, prompting the decision to exit the position.
- Stock Performance: Achieved a ~45% return during the holding period, significantly outperforming the ASX benchmark.
- Stronger Underwriting Profits: Improved operational performance led to underwriting profits exceeding market expectations, with premium increases of 9.7% in 2023.
- Higher Investment Income: QBE's investment earnings rose ~70% due to increased fixed income yields amid low interest rates.
- Improved Earnings Stability: FY23 earnings growth of 100% and consistent guidance for FY24, reflecting enhanced management performance.
- Leadership Impact: Appointment of Andrew Horton as CEO contributed to improved operational consistency and profitability.
- Strengthened Reserves: QBE's conservative reserving practices provided flexibility for consistent earnings growth, reducing volatility risks.
- Reduced Volatility Exposure: Management's initiatives to lower exposure to weather-related claims minimized potential negative surprises.
- U.S. Market Exit: QBE's decision to exit underperforming U.S. segments is seen as crucial for improving North American returns.
- Conclusion: While L1 Capital views QBE as a quality business, they exited the position to pursue alternative investment opportunities.
Summary
L1 Capital
31 Mar 2024
$18.04
- QBE shares rallied by 22% after reporting solid FY23 results, with earnings doubling year-over-year.
- Insurance profits met company guidance, indicating significant progress in achieving stronger and more consistent earnings.
- L1 Capital sees QBE as well positioned to exceed expectations going forward.
- Current consensus estimates reflect minimal improvement in insurance margins, despite positive industry trends.
- QBE has increased its weather claims budget and divested higher-risk portfolios, providing protection against future claims volatility.
- After a challenging 15 years, QBE is believed to have reached a turning point toward stronger margins, dividends, and return on equity.
- Shares have rallied over 100% since early 2021, yet trade at only 10x FY24 consensus P/E, below the pre-COVID average of approximately 13x.
Summary
Airlie Funds Management
30 Sept 2023
$15.55
- QBE is a holding in the portfolio.
- Airlie Funds Management met with competitors in the North American market: Chubb, The Hartford, Arch Capital, and Travelers.
- QBE is working on improving profitability in their North American division by exiting underperforming lines of business.
- The focus is on returning the “middle market” franchise to profitability.
- Competitors view their middle market business as a “crown jewel” with attractive economics and a fragmented competitive landscape.
- Questions remain about QBE's ability to build a quality middle market business.
- Competitors praised QBE’s new CEO Andrew Horton and his previous success at Beazley.
- Concerns exist regarding QBE’s scale and broker relationships in the middle market segment.
- Airlie Funds Management plans to address these concerns directly with QBE management.
- The commercial insurance environment is favorable with strong premium growth and improved investment portfolio yields.
- Airlie Funds Management continues to see QBE as a core holding in this positive backdrop.
Summary
Montgomery Investment Management
31 Aug 2023
$14.98
- Montgomery Investment Management views QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE) as a significant contributor to the Fund’s performance.
- QBE was initiated at maximum weight by Australian Eagle Asset Management, reflecting a well-developed investment thesis.
- The COVID-19 pandemic catalyzed an upward momentum in the insurance premium cycle and rising bond yields.
- These factors have provided tailwinds for QBE’s profitability.
- As of the end of the 2023 financial year, these tailwinds are still gaining momentum.
- Inflation, higher reinsurance costs, and long-tailed claims continue to drive insurance premium increases, with annual growth in high single-digits.
- A strong employment market and persistent inflation pressures are leading the U.S. Central Bank to hike interest rates.
- Montgomery Investment Management remains vigilant about changing market conditions that may affect QBE's positioning.
Summary
L1 Capital
31 Mar 2023
$14.59
- QBE shares rose by 9% after reporting strong FY22 results, exceeding consensus estimates for cash NPAT by 15-20%.
- The results indicate significant progress in delivering stronger and more consistent earnings.
- QBE is improving the performance of its historically struggling North American business.
- The company has strengthened its reserving, positioning itself to achieve consistent earnings growth in the coming years.
- Despite past caution regarding QBE due to industry-specific issues, L1 Capital believes the company has reached a turning point after 15 years of challenges.
- L1 Capital anticipates stronger margins, dividends, and return on equity going forward.
- The market has not yet fully recognized this inflection point, with QBE trading at only 10x FY23 consensus P/E, compared to a pre-COVID average of ~13x.
Summary
Cooper Investors
31 Mar 2023
$14.59
- QBE delivered progress on a low-risk turnaround thesis.
- Improved returns in North America, profitable for the first time in FY22 in four years.
- Focus on deliberate portfolio optimisation to achieve higher and more consistent sustainable returns.
- Operating trends supported by pricing above claims inflation and rising investment yields.
- More rational industry behaviour as capital withdraws from the industry.
- Management demonstrates intentional focus on long-term value creation, even with short-term sacrifices.
- Example of sacrifices includes conservative reinsurance and quota share deals.
Summary
L1 Capital
28 Feb 2023
$15.08
- QBE shares have increased by over 10% following the release of robust FY22 results.
- The cash NPAT reported was 15-20% ahead of consensus estimates.
- This result reflects significant progress in delivering stronger and more consistent earnings.
- Improvements in the North American business are notable, which has historically struggled.
- The company has considerably strengthened its reserving, positioning it well for consistent earnings growth.
- After years of caution, L1 Capital believes QBE has reached a turning point for better margins, dividends, and return on equity.
- The market has yet to fully value this change, with QBE trading at only 10x FY23 consensus P/E, compared to a pre-COVID average of around 13x.
Summary
L1 Capital
31 Dec 2022
$13.08
- QBE shares rose by +16% during the quarter due to buoyant premium volumes and rates, alongside investment yields tracking ahead of market expectations.
- Improved performance in North American business, historically a struggle for the company.
- Considerable strengthening of reserving, positioning QBE for consistent earnings growth over the next few years.
- Long-standing caution on QBE has been evident due to industry and company-specific issues.
- Belief in a turning point for QBE after 15 years of headwinds, anticipating stronger margins, dividends, and return on equity.
- Market expectations may not yet reflect this inflection point, with QBE trading at ~8.4x FY23 consensus P/E compared to a 10-year pre-COVID average of ~13x.
Summary
L1 Capital
31 Aug 2022
$12.07
- QBE (Long +5%) shares rose in August after robust H1 results with underwriting profit 15% ahead of consensus.
- Significant growth illustrated by GWP, with a 21% increase in 2021 and 18% increase in H1 2022 (constant currency).
- Improvement in North American business, showing better operating trends and reserving, reducing chances of future issues.
- Beneficiary of rising interest rates, with ~$27b investment book expected to generate an additional ~$240m earnings.
- After 15 years of headwinds, QBE is at a turning point, poised for stronger margins, dividends, and return on equity.
- Market expectations not yet factored, with QBE trading at ~8.5x FY23 consensus P/E compared to ~13x pre-COVID average.
Summary
Please note: The completeness, accuracy or current status of the investments referenced are not guaranteed.
ANALYST INSIGHT
Equity Research Analyst
After years of stagnation, it seems QBE Insurance Group is poised for a transformative rebound. With robust earnings growth and rising interest rates, the potential for undervalued returns appears significant. Investors should keep a keen eye on this inflection point.
Last Updated: 01 Dec 2025
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is investing in QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX:QBE)?
Fund managers including L1 Capital, Cooper Investors, Maple-Brown Abbott, Yarra Capital Management, Airlie Funds Management, Wilson Asset Management, Montgomery Investment Management, First Sentier Investors, Clime Investment Management, Tyndall Asset Management, Pendal Group and Akambo have invested in QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX:QBE).
Why do fund managers invest in QBE Insurance Group Ltd?
Fund managers are investing in QBE Insurance Group Ltd due to its strong financial performance, highlighted by a significant increase in Gross Written Premiums and a robust underwriting profit exceeding expectations. The company has shown notable improvement in its North American operations and is poised to benefit from rising interest rates, which will enhance earnings from its substantial investment portfolio. After years of challenges, QBE appears to be at a pivotal growth juncture, offering potential for improved margins and returns, which the market has yet to fully recognize.
What happened to QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX:QBE)?
Fund managers are investing in QBE Insurance Group Ltd due to its significant improvements in return on equity (ROE), now reaching between 15% and 19%, after a period of systematic recovery under CEO Andrew Horton. Despite some volatility in share prices and concerns regarding the global insurance premium rate cycle, QBE is viewed as undervalued, trading at approximately 11.5 times earnings compared to the market average of 20 times. The company is well-capitalized, has a solid claims position, and offers a competitive dividend yield, making it an attractive option for long-term investors.